Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OH Leuven vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2025

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
12/1/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 16King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

OH Leuven43%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.58
Anderlecht
1.35

OH Leuven creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.25
Anderlecht
1.36

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.34
Anderlecht
1.92

finishing

OH Leuven-0.05on par
Anderlecht-0.22scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
67%
OH Leuven or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
57%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
22%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
79%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
47%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
21%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
74%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
39%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
57%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.34 · 20 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.92 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.25 + Anderlecht defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Anderlecht attack 1.36 + OH Leuven defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OH Leuven scores more
43%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
33%

OH Leuven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. LeysenOH LeuvenOH Leuven · G
8.5

Match Events

39'
Thibault Vlietinck
59'
Siebe Schrijvers
63'
W. Balikwisha← H. Mendyl
66'
Y. Verschaeren← T. Leoni
66'
N. Angulo← F. Amuzu
71'
T. Ominami← F. Ricca
71'
K. N’Dri← Y. Maziz
78'
T. Degreef← A. Dreyer
78'
L. Vázquez← K. Dolberg
83'
Zanka

Possession

44%OH

Shots

17OH

Pass accuracy

49%OH

Statistics

OHAnderlecht
Overview
44%Possession56%
17Total Shots11
1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.96
2Corners7
19Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots11
2On Target5
7Off Target3
8Blocked3
10Inside Box4
7Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
342Total Passes437
264Accurate Passes347
77%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
19Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Jupiler Pro League: OH Leuven 0–0 Anderlecht

OH Leuven and Anderlecht drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 1, 2024.

Anderlecht controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.