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Anderlecht vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
K. Dolberg 36'
M. Maertens 44'
8/10/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 3Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Anderlecht48%
×Draw24%
OH Leuven28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.66
OH Leuven
1.22

Anderlecht creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
OH Leuven
1.10

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
OH Leuven
1.71

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
OH Leuven-0.20scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
72%
Anderlecht or OH Leuven
76%
Draw or OH Leuven
52%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
25%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
81%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
49%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
23%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
70%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
34%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
63%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + OH Leuven defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Anderlecht scores more
48%
level
24%
OH Leuven scores more
28%

Anderlecht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

54
K. SardellaAnderlechtAnderlecht · D
7.7

Match Events

26'
Jan-Carlo Simić
36'
K. Dolberg↳ M. Stroeykens
39'
Killian Sardella
44'
M. Maertens↳ S. Schrijvers
51'
William Balikwisha
60'
F. Amuzu← M. Ashimeru
62'
Hamza Mendyl
63'
Óscar Gil← T. Vlietinck
63'
Y. Maziz← W. Balikwisha
69'
L. Vázquez← M. Stroeykens
75'
C. Ikwuemesi← M. Maertens
75'
E. Banzuzi← H. Mendyl
82'
L. Augustinsson← M. NDiaye
85'
M. Biron← B. Verstraete
86'
Luis Vázquez

Possession

60%Anderlecht

Shots

18Anderlecht

Pass accuracy

53%Anderlecht

Statistics

AnderlechtOH
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots10
1.50Expected Goals (xG)0.74
9Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots10
2On Target4
9Off Target4
7Blocked2
13Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
424Total Passes285
365Accurate Passes219
86%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.09Goals Prevented0.09
Discipline
10Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Anderlecht 1–1 OH Leuven

Anderlecht and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 10, 2024.

Goals: K. Dolberg (36'), M. Maertens (44').

Anderlecht controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.