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OH Leuven vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2025

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Y. Maziz 10'
L. Patris 70'
1/21/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 21King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

OH Leuven42%
×Draw25%
Anderlecht33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.54
Anderlecht
1.32

OH Leuven creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.22
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.31
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

OH Leuven-0.03on par
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
67%
OH Leuven or Anderlecht
75%
Draw or Anderlecht
58%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
21%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
79%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
45%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
20%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
73%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
38%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
57%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 21 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.22 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + OH Leuven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OH Leuven scores more
42%
level
25%
Anderlecht scores more
33%

OH Leuven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. PatrisAnderlechtAnderlecht · D
7.6

Match Events

10'
Y. Maziz
43'
Louis Patris
66'
M. Maertens← Y. Maziz
66'
K. N’Dri← N. Nsingi
69'
Zeno Debast
70'
L. Patris↳ K. Dolberg
79'
Florian Miguel
80'
M. Stroeykens← M. Rits
82'
J. Braut Brunes← J. Þorsteinsson
85'
N. Angulo← T. Hazard
85'
L. Vázquez← K. Dolberg
90+2'
Federico Ricca

Possession

28%OH

Shots

8OH

Pass accuracy

42%OH

Statistics

OHAnderlecht
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots12
0.80Expected Goals (xG)0.76
5Corners3
8Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target4
3Off Target5
1Blocked3
4Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
28%Possession72%
236Total Passes644
149Accurate Passes566
63%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Match Recap: OH Leuven vs Anderlecht

OH Leuven and Anderlecht drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 21, 2024.

Goals: Y. Maziz (10'), L. Patris (70').

Anderlecht controlled possession (72%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.