OH Leuven 0–2 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

OH Leuven

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Anderlecht

3/19/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 30King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

OH Leuven43%

×Draw24%

Anderlecht33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OH LeuvenExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.38

OH Leuven

1.60

Anderlecht

1.38

OH Leuven creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

1.32

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

OH Leuven

1.32

Anderlecht

1.33

allows per match

OH Leuven

1.43

Anderlecht

1.87

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

OH Leuven+0.03on par

Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw

67%

OH Leuven or Anderlecht

76%

Draw or Anderlecht

57%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+

22%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals

80%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

47%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

22%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

75%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

40%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

56%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.32 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + OH Leuven defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OH Leuven scores more

43%

level

24%

Anderlecht scores more

33%

OH Leuven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff