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Oeste vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
Kieza 66'
10/20/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 17Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Oeste46%
×Draw29%
Nautico Recife25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.25
Nautico Recife
0.83

Oeste creates 51% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 77 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.92
Nautico Recife
0.74

allows per match

Oeste
0.92
Nautico Recife
1.57

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
75%
Oeste or Nautico Recife
71%
Draw or Nautico Recife
54%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
21%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
71%
Oeste 2+ goals
36%
Oeste 3+ goals
13%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
56%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
20%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
65%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.92 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Oeste defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oeste scores more
46%
level
29%
Nautico Recife scores more
25%

Oeste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
William Simões
46'
Ramon Soares← Kauã
60'
Erick← Jean Carlos
66'
Kieza↳ Jhonnatan
70'
Kevyn← Willian Simões
71'
Caio
72'
Fabricio Oya← Caio
79'
Lucas Gonçalves← Matheus Rocha
81'
Djavan← Jhonnatan
81'
Dudu← Jorge Henrique
89'
Marlon← Madson
89'
Diogo← Matheus Dantas

Possession

45%Oeste

Shots

8Oeste

Pass accuracy

49%Oeste

Statistics

OesteNautico
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots11
5Corners5
20Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots11
2On Target4
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
5Inside Box4
3Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
360Total Passes438
286Accurate Passes353
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Serie B: Oeste 0–1 Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat Oeste 1-0 in Serie B on October 20, 2020.

Goals: Kieza (66').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.