Oeste 1–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Oeste

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

Robert 72'

9/16/2017

Serie B · Round 24Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Oeste46%

×Draw29%

Nautico Recife25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Oeste

1.25

Nautico Recife

0.83

Oeste creates 51% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 77 away

0.92

creates per match

0.74

0.92

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Oeste

0.92

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Oeste

0.92

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

75%

Oeste or Nautico Recife

71%

Draw or Nautico Recife

54%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

21%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

71%

Oeste 2+ goals

36%

Oeste 3+ goals

13%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

56%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

20%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

65%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.92 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Oeste defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oeste scores more

46%

level

29%

Nautico Recife scores more

25%

Oeste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Daniel Borges

Oeste · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

Manoel← William

42'

Henrique

44'

Henrique

44'

Henrique

46'

Robert← Lidio

55'

Joilson

58'

Jheimy← Gabriel Vasconcelos

71'

Diego Miranda

71'

Willian Schuster← Rafinha

72'

Jefferson

72'

Robert↳ Mazinho

80'

Fabricio← Raphael Indio

84'

Vinicius← Diego Miranda

85'

Robert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteNautico

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots11

8Corners3

19Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots11

6On Target3

9Off Target7

5Blocked1

10Inside Box1

10Outside Box10

Passing

60%Possession40%

521Total Passes348

434Accurate Passes251

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1