Nautico Recife 4–1 Oeste: Result & Stats | Serie B

Nautico Recife

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Oeste

Erick 53'

Kieza 31'

Jean Carlos 21'

Diogo Hereda 5'

Pedrinho 63'

1/20/2021

Serie B · Round 36Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nautico Recife48%

×Draw26%

Oeste27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchOeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Nautico Recife

1.52

Oeste

1.07

Nautico Recife creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 66 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.20

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.32

Oeste

0.95

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Oeste

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

73%

Nautico Recife or Oeste

74%

Draw or Oeste

52%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

24%

Oeste wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

78%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

45%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

20%

Oeste 1+ goals

66%

Oeste 2+ goals

29%

Oeste 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

64%

Oeste (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.71 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Oeste defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oeste attack 0.95 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

48%

level

26%

Oeste scores more

27%

Nautico Recife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Erick

Nautico Recife · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

12'

21'

24'

31'

42'

46'

Ronaldo Alves← Camutanga

46'

Kalil← Diogo

46'

Lucas Gonçalves← Rael

53'

Erick↳ Vinícius

61'

Ramon Soares← Bruno Lopes

63'

Pedrinho↳ Betinho

64'

Dadá Belmonte← Vinícius

64'

Ruy← Jean Carlos

64'

Matheus Trindade← Jhonnatan

68'

De Paula

79'

Bruno Miguel← Léo Ceará

83'

Jorge Henrique← Erick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoOeste

Overview

57%Possession43%

27Total Shots11

9Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

27Total Shots11

14On Target5

10Off Target4

3Blocked2

17Inside Box3

10Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

460Total Passes347

386Accurate Passes266

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves10

Discipline

15Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3