Oeste 0–4 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Oeste

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Atletico Goianiense

Oliveira 67'

Mike 45+4'

Pedro Raul 32', 28'

11/12/2019

Serie B · Round 35Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste36%

×Draw30%

Atletico Goianiense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.00

Oeste

1.05

Atletico Goianiense

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

0.93

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

Atletico Goianiense

1.04

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

Atletico Goianiense

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

66%

Oeste or Atletico Goianiense

70%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

64%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

65%

Oeste 2+ goals

28%

Oeste 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

52%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.04 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oeste scores more

36%

level

30%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

34%

Oeste at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mike

Atletico Goianiense · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

Juninho

21'

Jonathan

28'

Pedro Raul↳ Mike

32'

Pedro Raul↳ Jonathan Lemos

45+4'

Mike

46'

Mazinho← Leandro Melo

53'

Lucas Rocha← Gilvan

54'

Aylon

61'

Welliton← Elvis

67'

Oliveira↳ Mike

68'

Reginaldo← Aylon

71'

Matheus Oliveira

75'

Bruno Lopes← Matheus Oliveira

81'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Pedro Raul

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteAtletico

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots16

10Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target5

7Off Target7

5Blocked4

6Inside Box10

11Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

372Total Passes420

281Accurate Passes334

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Serie B: Oeste 0–4 Atletico Goianiense

Atletico Goianiense beat Oeste 4-0 in Serie B on November 12, 2019.

Goals: Pedro Raul (28', 32'), Mike (45+4'), Oliveira (67').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.

Oeste vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Oeste 0–4 Atletico Goianiense