Oeste 1–2 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Oeste

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Marcinho 34'

Renato Kayzer 54'

Daniel Borges 32' (OG)

9/7/2018

Serie B · Round 26Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste36%

×Draw30%

Atletico Goianiense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.00

Oeste

1.05

Atletico Goianiense

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

0.93

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

Atletico Goianiense

1.04

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

Atletico Goianiense

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

66%

Oeste or Atletico Goianiense

70%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

64%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

65%

Oeste 2+ goals

28%

Oeste 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

52%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.04 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oeste scores more

36%

level

30%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

34%

Oeste at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Daniel BorgesOwn goal

34'

Marcinho↳ Betinho

45+1'

Zé Love← Mazinho

51'

54'

62'

63'

65'

68'

72'

Tomas Bastos← Renato Kayzer

80'

Ceará← Marciel

80'

83'

88'

90'

90'

90+1'

Lucas Rocha← Júlio César

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteAtletico

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots12

10Corners8

11Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target6

7Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

451Total Passes365

362Accurate Passes266

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Serie B: Oeste 1–2 Atletico Goianiense

Atletico Goianiense beat Oeste 2-1 in Serie B on September 7, 2018.

Goals: Daniel Borges (32' o.g.), Marcinho (34'), Renato Kayzer (54').

Oeste controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.

Oeste vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Oeste 1–2 Atletico Goianiense