Oeste 0–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Oeste

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Júnior Viçosa 21'

5/13/2016

Serie B · Round 1Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles (Catanduva, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste36%

×Draw30%

Atletico Goianiense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.00

Oeste

1.05

Atletico Goianiense

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

0.93

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

Atletico Goianiense

1.04

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

Atletico Goianiense

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

66%

Oeste or Atletico Goianiense

70%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

64%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

65%

Oeste 2+ goals

28%

Oeste 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

52%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.04 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oeste scores more

36%

level

30%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

34%

Oeste at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Júnior Viçosa

65'

Maurinho← Clébson

69'

Klever← Marcio

74'

Willian Schuster← Magno Cruz

78'

Renan Mota← Leo Melo

80'

Caion← Gilsinho

88'

Francisco Alex← Elivelton

Oeste

Atletico

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

65'▲Maurinho←▼Clébson

78'▲Renan Mota←▼Leo Melo

88'▲Francisco Alex←▼Elivelton

Oeste substitutes

MaurinhoMotaAlexCastroTulioSalustianoJeferson

69'▲Klever←▼Marcio

74'▲Willian Schuster←▼Magno Cruz

80'▲Caion←▼Gilsinho

Atletico Goianiense substitutes

KleverSchusterCaionRibeiroThalesAlisonCaique