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Odisha vs Mumbai City — Indian Super League 2025

Odisha
Odisha
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
R. Krishna 76' (pen)
J. Mawihmingthanga 45+1'
J. Pereyra Díaz 88'
R. Griffiths 47'
9/28/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 2Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Odisha29%
×Draw27%
Mumbai City44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odisha
1.10
Mumbai City
1.41

Mumbai City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

Odisha
1.11
Mumbai City
1.38

allows per match

Odisha
1.44
Mumbai City
1.08

finishing

Odisha+0.00on par
Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odisha ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Odisha or draw
56%
Odisha or Mumbai City
73%
Draw or Mumbai City
71%

Winning margin

Odisha wins by 2+
11%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odisha 1+ goals
67%
Odisha 2+ goals
30%
Odisha 3+ goals
10%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
76%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
41%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Odisha (draw refunded)
40%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odisha at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odisha attack 1.11 + Mumbai City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Odisha defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Odisha scores more
29%
level
27%
Mumbai City scores more
44%

Mumbai City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
G. StewartMumbai CityMumbai City · M
8.0

Match Events

27'
Lalthathanga Khawlhring
41'
Carlos Delgado
45+1'
J. Mawihmingthanga
47'
R. Griffiths↳ G. Stewart
61'
V. Partap Singh← B. Singh
63'
R. Krishna← Diego Maurício
71'
P. Rebello← L. Khawlhring
74'
A. El Khayati← G. Stewart
74'
J. Rane← V. Rai
76'
R. KrishnaPenalty
82'
S. Panwar← J. Mawihmingthanga
82'
Laldinliana Renthlei← I. Vanlalruatfela
86'
Y. van Nieff← Tiri
88'
J. Pereyra Díaz↳ V. Partap Singh
90+8'
Abdenasser El Khayati
90+1'
Apuia

Possession

48%Odisha

Shots

7Odisha

Pass accuracy

49%Odisha

Statistics

OdishaMumbai
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots13
4Corners8
12Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots13
4On Target5
3Off Target4
0Blocked4
5Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
411Total Passes436
341Accurate Passes374
83%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Odisha vs Mumbai City

Odisha and Mumbai City drew 2-2 in Indian Super League on September 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Mawihmingthanga (45+1'), R. Griffiths (47'), R. Krishna (76' pen), J. Pereyra Díaz (88').

Mumbai City controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Kalinga Stadium in Bhubaneswar.