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Mumbai City vs Odisha — Indian Super League 2025

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odisha
Odisha
L. Chhangte 73'
4/5/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 7Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mumbai City52%
×Draw25%
Odisha24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
1.61
Odisha
1.00

Mumbai City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
1.22
Odisha
1.11

allows per match

Mumbai City
0.89
Odisha
2.00

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par
Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Odisha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
76%
Mumbai City or Odisha
75%
Draw or Odisha
48%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
27%
Odisha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
80%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
48%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
22%
Odisha 1+ goals
63%
Odisha 2+ goals
26%
Odisha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
69%
Odisha (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Odisha away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.22 + Odisha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Odisha attack 1.11 + Mumbai City defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mumbai City scores more
52%
level
25%
Odisha scores more
24%

Mumbai City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. SinghOdishaOdisha · G
7.9

Match Events

18'
Lalthathanga Khawlhring
38'
Akash Mishra
63'
K. Beyong← S. Bhattacharya
72'
Lalnuntluanga Bawitlung
73'
V. Partap Singh← B. Fernandes
73'
L. Chhangte↳ V. Partap Singh
80'
E. S. Vanspaul← R. Kumar
80'
V. Suhair← I. Vanlalruatfela
85'
A. Chhikara← P. Noufal
85'
Z. Zothanpuia← B. Lalnuntluanga
90+1'
F. R. Nazareth← M. J. Ortiz
90+1'
K. Hantal← Mafela

Possession

57%Mumbai

Shots

19Mumbai

Pass accuracy

51%Mumbai

Statistics

MumbaiOdisha
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots6
2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.57
14Corners5
7Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots6
6On Target2
5Off Target3
8Blocked1
13Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
391Total Passes301
286Accurate Passes212
73%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Mumbai City vs Odisha

Mumbai City beat Odisha 1-0 in Indian Super League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: L. Chhangte (73').

Mumbai City controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Mumbai Football Arena in Mumbai.