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Mumbai City vs Odisha — Indian Super League 2025

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Odisha
Odisha
L. Chhangte 61'
J. Pereyra Díaz 22'
Diego Maurício 25'
4/8/2024Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 21Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mumbai City49%
×Draw24%
Odisha26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
1.69
Odisha
1.17

Mumbai City creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
1.47
Odisha
1.09

allows per match

Mumbai City
1.24
Odisha
1.91

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par
Odisha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Odisha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
74%
Mumbai City or Odisha
76%
Draw or Odisha
51%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
26%
Odisha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
82%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
50%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
24%
Odisha 1+ goals
69%
Odisha 2+ goals
33%
Odisha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
65%
Odisha (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Odisha away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.47 + Odisha defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Odisha attack 1.09 + Mumbai City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mumbai City scores more
49%
level
24%
Odisha scores more
26%

Mumbai City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. ChhangteMumbai CityMumbai City · M
9.9

Match Events

22'
J. Pereyra Díaz↳ L. Chhangte
25'
Diego Maurício
34'
Diego Mauricio
37'
Lalthathanga Khawlhring
45+3'
Vikram Partap Singh
45+1'
Mehtab Singh
56'
B. Singh← V. Partap Singh
61'
L. Chhangte
65'
Lenny Rodrigues
71'
Tiri
73'
Princeton Rebello
74'
J. Rane← Alberto Noguera
74'
H. Ralte← M. Singh
80'
J. Vojtuš← Y. van Nieff
80'
Thaer Krouma← Tiri
80'
T. Singh← P. Rebello
80'
C. Goddard← Carlos Delgado
88'
Mourtada Fall

Possession

50%Mumbai

Shots

12Mumbai

Pass accuracy

51%Mumbai

Statistics

MumbaiOdisha
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots7
0Corners6
12Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots7
6On Target2
5Off Target4
1Blocked1
10Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
399Total Passes388
320Accurate Passes298
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Indian Super League: Mumbai City 2–1 Odisha

Mumbai City beat Odisha 2-1 in Indian Super League on April 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Pereyra Díaz (22'), Diego Maurício (25'), L. Chhangte (61').

Mumbai City controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Mumbai Football Arena in Mumbai.