Oddevold 1–1 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Oddevold

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

L. Shahin 41'

A. Murbeck 86'

5/9/2026

Superettan · Round 6Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Oddevold32%

×Draw24%

Landskrona BoIS43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OddevoldExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.60

Oddevold

1.35

Landskrona BoIS

1.60

Landskrona BoIS creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

1.85

1.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Oddevold

1.20

Landskrona BoIS

1.85

allows per match

Oddevold

1.36

Landskrona BoIS

1.50

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Oddevold+0.20scores more

Landskrona BoIS-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw

57%

Oddevold or Landskrona BoIS

76%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

68%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+

14%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals

74%

Oddevold 2+ goals

39%

Oddevold 3+ goals

15%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

80%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

47%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)

43%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.36 · 10 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.20 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.85 + Oddevold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oddevold scores more

32%

level

24%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

43%

Landskrona BoIS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Gabriel Sandberg

41'

L. Shahin↳ E. Hedenquist

62'

Z. Loukili← K. Sakurai

66'

G. Forssell← E. Mehmed

67'

A. Engelbrektsson← H. Engstrom

74'

E. Sylisufaj← C. Capotondi

74'

A. Perez← G. Elezaj

74'

X. Odhiambo← M. Bjorkqvist

80'

O. Iglicar Berntsson← O. Kjellman Olblad

80'

L. Tornblad← L. Shahin

83'

André Álvarez Pérez

86'

A. Murbeck↳ E. Hebibovic

89'

J. Albin← G. Sandberg

89'

M. Bahno← A. Almqvist

Oddevold3-4-3

Landskrona4-2-3-1

36

A

Hebibovic

10

▼

Capotondi

5

Egnell

11

▼

Bjorkqvis

17

▼

Elezaj

13

▼

Sakurai

3

Weststrom

6

Karlsson

26

⚽

4

30

12

21

▼

Almqvist

3

A

Hedenquis

6

Adolfsoon

5

▼

Mehmed

15

Forsberg

14

▼

Sandberg

7

Sundberg

17

▼

Olblad

10

⚽

▼

Shahin

19

▼

Engstrom

Manager: Rikard Nilsson

66'▲G. Forssell←▼E. Mehmed

67'▲A. Engelbrektsson←▼H. Engstrom

80'▲O. Iglicar Berntsson←▼O. Kjellman Olblad

80'▲L. Tornblad←▼L. Shahin

89'▲J. Albin←▼G. Sandberg

89'▲M. Bahno←▼A. Almqvist

Oddevold substitutes

8Berntsson9Tornblad13Gono18Forssell20Engelbrektsson22Albin23Haidar24Bahno33Jarlesand

Manager: Robin Asterhed

62'▲Z. Loukili←▼K. Sakurai

74'▲E. Sylisufaj←▼C. Capotondi

74'▲A. Perez←▼G. Elezaj

74'▲X. Odhiambo←▼M. Bjorkqvist

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

1Kaddoura8Smajic9Sylisufaj12Moungam15Mohamed18Perez19Ozoemena20Odhiambo23Loukili