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Odd II vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Odd II
Odd II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
10/9/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Odd II45%
×Draw20%
Fredrikstad II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd II
2.40
Fredrikstad II
2.15

Odd II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Odd II
2.44
Fredrikstad II
2.12

allows per match

Odd II
2.17
Fredrikstad II
2.35

finishing

Odd II+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd II ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Odd II or draw
64%
Odd II or Fredrikstad II
80%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
55%

Winning margin

Odd II wins by 2+
26%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Odd II 1+ goals
91%
Odd II 2+ goals
69%
Odd II 3+ goals
42%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
88%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
63%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Odd II (draw refunded)
55%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd II attack 2.44 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.40

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Odd II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odd II scores more
45%
level
20%
Fredrikstad II scores more
36%

Odd II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odd II vs Fredrikstad II

Odd II and Fredrikstad II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.