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Fredrikstad II vs Odd II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Odd II
Odd II
7/31/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 13Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fredrikstad II50%
×Draw22%
Odd II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Odd II
1.50

Fredrikstad II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Odd II
1.80

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.19
Odd II
2.05

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Odd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
72%
Fredrikstad II or Odd II
78%
Draw or Odd II
50%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
29%
Odd II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
87%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
60%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
33%
Odd II 1+ goals
78%
Odd II 2+ goals
44%
Odd II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
64%
Odd II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 2.04 + Odd II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.04

Odd II attack 1.80 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
50%
level
22%
Odd II scores more
28%

Fredrikstad II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Fredrikstad II 1–2 Odd II

Odd II beat Fredrikstad II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.