Fredrikstad II 0–5 Odd II: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Odd II

10/2/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 22Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fredrikstad II37%

×Draw22%

Odd II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fredrikstad IIExpected goals in this matchOdd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.89

Fredrikstad II

1.77

Odd II

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.77

2.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Fredrikstad II

1.92

Odd II

1.77

allows per match

Fredrikstad II

2.00

Odd II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Odd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw

59%

Fredrikstad II or Odd II

78%

Draw or Odd II

63%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

19%

Odd II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

83%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

53%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

26%

Odd II 1+ goals

85%

Odd II 2+ goals

56%

Odd II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

47%

Odd II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 1.92 + Odd II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Odd II attack 1.77 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more

37%

level

22%

Odd II scores more

41%

Odd II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff