ODD Ballklubb 3–2 Viking: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Viking

M. Bakenga 68' (pen), 46'

M. Kaasa 45+2'

V. Berisha 73'

H. Tangen 60'

7/17/2021

Eliteserien · Round 13Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb28%

×Draw25%

Viking47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.61

ODD Ballklubb

1.19

Viking

1.61

Viking creates 35% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

1.30

creates per match

1.74

1.49

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Viking

1.74

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Viking

1.08

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Viking+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

53%

ODD Ballklubb or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

72%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

33%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Viking 1+ goals

80%

Viking 2+ goals

48%

Viking 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

37%

Viking (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Viking away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.08 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Viking attack 1.74 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

28%

level

25%

Viking scores more

47%

Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Bakenga

ODD Ballklubb · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

Gilli Sørensen

45'

Espen Ruud

45+2'

M. Kaasa↳ S. Svendsen

46'

M. Bakenga

58'

H. Haugen← H. Heggheim

58'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← S. Friðjónsson

60'

H. Tangen↳ V. Berisha

61'

K. Larsen← G. Rólantsson

68'

M. BakengaPenalty

70'

T. Lauritsen← M. Bakenga

73'

V. Berisha↳ Z. Tripić

83'

S. Auklend← S. Pattynama

84'

C. Wallem← S. Svendsen

84'

S. Owusu← M. Kaasa

84'

S. Sebulonsen← K. Løkberg

87'

T. Høiland← H. Tangen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDViking

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots8

4Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target2

8Off Target5

1Blocked1

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes334

376Accurate Passes244

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking

ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 3-2 in Eliteserien on July 17, 2021.

Goals: M. Kaasa (45+2'), M. Bakenga (46', 68' pen), H. Tangen (60'), V. Berisha (73').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking