ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Viking: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viking

Marcus Andre Kaasa 54'

4/23/2019

Eliteserien · Round 4Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb30%

×Draw25%

Viking46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.59

ODD Ballklubb

1.23

Viking

1.59

Viking creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.30

creates per match

1.70

1.49

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Viking

1.70

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Viking

1.15

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Viking+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

54%

ODD Ballklubb or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

70%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Viking wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

71%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

35%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

13%

Viking 1+ goals

80%

Viking 2+ goals

47%

Viking 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

39%

Viking (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Viking away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Viking defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Viking attack 1.70 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

30%

level

25%

Viking scores more

46%

Viking at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Fredrik Jensen

ODD Ballklubb · M

7.8

Match Events

46'

Marcus Andre Kaasa← Joshua Kitolano

54'

Marcus Andre Kaasa↳ Fredrik Jensen

68'

Kristian Thorstvedt

69'

Even Østensen← Tommy Høiland

75'

Jone Samuelsen← Sander Svendsen

75'

Fredrik Torsteinbø← Zymer Bytyqi

85'

Jostein Ekeland← Samúel Kári Friðjónsson

90'

Andre Sodlund← Elbasan Rashani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDViking

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots10

6Corners1

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target2

2Off Target6

2Blocked2

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

493Total Passes390

395Accurate Passes306

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2