ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Start: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Start

T. Lauritsen 76'

E. Rashani 44'

F. Nordkvelle 19'

5/6/2018

Eliteserien · Round 8Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%

×Draw25%

Start29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.20

ODD Ballklubb

1.56

Start

1.20

ODD Ballklubb creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

1.30

creates per match

0.90

1.49

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Start

0.90

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Start

1.82

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

71%

ODD Ballklubb or Start

75%

Draw or Start

54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

23%

Start wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

46%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

21%

Start 1+ goals

70%

Start 2+ goals

34%

Start 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

61%

Start (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Start attack 0.90 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

46%

level

25%

Start scores more

29%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Ruud

ODD Ballklubb · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

F. Nordkvelle↳ M. Broberg

40'

Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

44'

E. Rashani

62'

T. Lauritsen← B. Njie

63'

V. Bergan← F. Semb Berge

63'

H. Robstad← E. Käck

66'

M. Bringaker← K. Skaanes

72'

A. Sigurdarson← K. Kabran

76'

T. Lauritsen↳ E. Rashani

79'

S. Mladenovic← E. Rashani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDStart

Overview

67%Possession33%

14Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target2

8Off Target5

1Blocked1

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

577Total Passes280

518Accurate Passes211

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Start

ODD Ballklubb beat Start 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 6, 2018.

Goals: F. Nordkvelle (19'), E. Rashani (44'), T. Lauritsen (76').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 3–0 Start