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ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
CANC
00:00
Mjondalen
Mjondalen
11/28/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 30Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

ODD Ballklubb50%
×Draw25%
Mjondalen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.64
Mjondalen
1.09

ODD Ballklubb creates 50% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.68
Mjondalen
0.86

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.33
Mjondalen
1.59

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Mjondalen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Mjondalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
75%
ODD Ballklubb or Mjondalen
75%
Draw or Mjondalen
50%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
27%
Mjondalen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
81%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
49%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
23%
Mjondalen 1+ goals
66%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
30%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
66%
Mjondalen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.33 · 93 matches

Mjondalen away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.68 + Mjondalen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mjondalen attack 0.86 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
50%
level
25%
Mjondalen scores more
25%

ODD Ballklubb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ODD Ballklubb face Mjondalen (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with ODD Ballklubb hosting Mjondalen. Match starts November 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ODD Ballklubb host Mjondalen at Skagerak Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.