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Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
CANC
16:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
5/24/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 9Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen44%
×Draw25%
ODD Ballklubb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
1.52
ODD Ballklubb
1.23

Mjondalen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
1.32
ODD Ballklubb
1.08

allows per match

Mjondalen
1.39
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
69%
Mjondalen or ODD Ballklubb
75%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
56%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
22%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
78%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
45%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
20%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
71%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
35%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
59%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjondalen scores more
44%
level
25%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
31%

Mjondalen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mjondalen host ODD Ballklubb

May 24, 2021: Mjondalen take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mjondalen host ODD Ballklubb at Consto Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.