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Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
S. Ibrahim 67'
M. Bakenga 50' (pen)
S. Makani 40' (OG)
7/1/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 10Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen44%
×Draw25%
ODD Ballklubb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
1.52
ODD Ballklubb
1.23

Mjondalen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
1.32
ODD Ballklubb
1.08

allows per match

Mjondalen
1.39
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
69%
Mjondalen or ODD Ballklubb
75%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
56%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
22%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
78%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
45%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
20%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
71%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
35%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
59%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjondalen scores more
44%
level
25%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
31%

Mjondalen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. IbrahimMjondalenMjondalen · F
7.3

Match Events

24'
William Sell
37'
Gilli Sørensen
40'
S. MakaniOwn goal
46'
F. Brustad← W. Sell
46'
I. Twum← C. Gauseth
50'
M. BakengaPenalty
60'
T. Brochmann← O. Sveen
60'
S. Ibrahim← B. Stokke
67'
S. Ibrahim↳ M. Ovenstad
72'
E. Ruud← G. Rólantsson
72'
C. Wallem← S. Svendsen
77'
M. Bækken← M. Ovenstad
85'
S. Owusu← M. Kaasa
85'
T. Lauritsen← K. Larsen
88'
Sondre Rossbach

Possession

49%Mjondalen

Shots

11Mjondalen

Pass accuracy

50%Mjondalen

Statistics

MjondalenODD
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots8
4Corners3
11Fouls6
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target3
4Off Target3
2Blocked2
6Inside Box3
5Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
510Total Passes532
428Accurate Passes447
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 2-1 in Eliteserien on July 1, 2021.

Goals: S. Makani (40' o.g.), M. Bakenga (50' pen), S. Ibrahim (67').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.