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ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Mjondalen
Mjondalen
B. Risa 90+4'
E. Rashani 67'
M. Bakenga 34', 14'
E. Ruud 31' (pen), 6'
T. Brochmann 4'
8/30/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 16Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

ODD Ballklubb50%
×Draw25%
Mjondalen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.64
Mjondalen
1.09

ODD Ballklubb creates 50% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.68
Mjondalen
0.86

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.33
Mjondalen
1.59

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Mjondalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Mjondalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
75%
ODD Ballklubb or Mjondalen
75%
Draw or Mjondalen
50%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
27%
Mjondalen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
81%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
49%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
23%
Mjondalen 1+ goals
66%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
30%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
66%
Mjondalen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.33 · 93 matches

Mjondalen away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.68 + Mjondalen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mjondalen attack 0.86 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
50%
level
25%
Mjondalen scores more
25%

ODD Ballklubb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
E. RuudODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · D
9.7

Match Events

4'
T. Brochmann
6'
E. Ruud↳ K. Jakobsen
14'
M. Bakenga↳ E. Rashani
31'
Joackim Solberg
31'
E. RuudPenalty
34'
M. Bakenga
46'
D. Þór­halls­son← L. Larsen
46'
W. Sell← Q. Jansen
46'
M. Ovenstad← T. Brochmann
62'
F. Brustad← S. Ibrahim
67'
S. Johansen← M. Nakkim
67'
E. Rashani↳ V. Hoff
76'
F. Jørgensen← J. Kitolano
76'
F. Nordkvelle← K. Jakobsen
77'
Birk Risa
85'
O. Ugwuadu← M. Bakenga
86'
Martin Ovenstad
90'
B. Mæland← O. Bjørtuft
90+4'
B. Risa↳ E. Ruud

Possession

ODD: 64Mjondalen: 3664%ODD

Shots

ODD: 17Mjondalen: 917ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 88Mjondalen: 7355%ODD

Statistics

ODDMjondalen
Overview
64%Possession36%
17Total Shots9
5Corners1
15Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots9
11On Target4
3Off Target2
3Blocked3
10Inside Box7
7Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
550Total Passes292
486Accurate Passes214
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen

ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 6-1 in Eliteserien on August 30, 2020.

Goals: T. Brochmann (4'), E. Ruud (6', 31' pen), M. Bakenga (14', 34'), E. Rashani (67'), B. Risa (90+4').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.