ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Aalesund: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aalesund

9/29/2025

1. Division · Round 24Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb36%

×Draw24%

Aalesund39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.52

ODD Ballklubb

1.45

Aalesund

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 75 away

1.57

creates per match

1.60

1.43

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Aalesund

1.60

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Aalesund

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

61%

ODD Ballklubb or Aalesund

76%

Draw or Aalesund

64%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

17%

Aalesund wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

77%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

42%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

18%

Aalesund 1+ goals

78%

Aalesund 2+ goals

45%

Aalesund 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

48%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Aalesund defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Aalesund attack 1.60 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

36%

level

24%

Aalesund scores more

39%

Aalesund at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff