ODD Ballklubb 4–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aalesund

12/3/2023

Eliteserien · Round 30Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ODD Ballklubb60%

×Draw21%

Aalesund20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.13

ODD Ballklubb

2.13

Aalesund

1.13

ODD Ballklubb creates 88% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 52 away

1.69

creates per match

0.94

1.31

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.69

Aalesund

0.94

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.31

Aalesund

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

80%

ODD Ballklubb or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

40%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

37%

Aalesund wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

88%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

63%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

35%

Aalesund 1+ goals

68%

Aalesund 2+ goals

31%

Aalesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

75%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

Aalesund away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.58 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.69 + Aalesund defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Aalesund attack 0.94 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

60%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

20%

ODD Ballklubb at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff