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Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2018

Aalesund
Aalesund
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
6/21/20251. Division1. Division · Round 12Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Aalesund55%
×Draw22%
ODD Ballklubb23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
2.01
ODD Ballklubb
1.22

Aalesund creates 65% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 21 away

creates per match

Aalesund
2.31
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

allows per match

Aalesund
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
77%
Aalesund or ODD Ballklubb
78%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
45%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
33%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
87%
Aalesund 2+ goals
59%
Aalesund 3+ goals
32%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
70%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
34%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
71%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.31 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.01

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Aalesund defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aalesund scores more
55%
level
22%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
23%

Aalesund at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Aalesund 1–0 ODD Ballklubb

Aalesund beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 in 1. Division on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion.