Oakland County 2–4 Ann Arbor: Result & Stats

Oakland County

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Ann Arbor

6/28/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 14Royal Oaks High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oakland County42%

×Draw23%

Ann Arbor36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakland CountyExpected goals in this matchAnn Arbor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.62

Oakland County

1.76

Ann Arbor

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.38

creates per match

1.86

1.38

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Oakland County

2.38

Ann Arbor

1.86

allows per match

Oakland County

1.38

Ann Arbor

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakland County+0.00on par

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland County ↓

Ann Arbor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Oakland County or draw

64%

Oakland County or Ann Arbor

77%

Draw or Ann Arbor

58%

Winning margin

Oakland County wins by 2+

22%

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oakland County 1+ goals

83%

Oakland County 2+ goals

52%

Oakland County 3+ goals

26%

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

80%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

48%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Oakland County (draw refunded)

54%

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland County at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland County attack 2.38 + Ann Arbor defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ann Arbor attack 1.86 + Oakland County defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oakland County scores more

42%

level

23%

Ann Arbor scores more

36%

Oakland County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oakland County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff