Ann Arbor 1–3 Oakland County: Result & Stats

Ann Arbor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oakland County

5/26/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 5Saline High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ann Arbor48%

×Draw23%

Oakland County30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ann ArborExpected goals in this matchOakland County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.42

Ann Arbor

1.85

Oakland County

1.42

Ann Arbor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

2.11

creates per match

1.40

1.44

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ann Arbor

2.11

Oakland County

1.40

allows per match

Ann Arbor

1.44

Oakland County

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Oakland County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Oakland County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw

70%

Ann Arbor or Oakland County

77%

Draw or Oakland County

52%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

26%

Oakland County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

84%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

55%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

28%

Oakland County 1+ goals

76%

Oakland County 2+ goals

41%

Oakland County 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

62%

Oakland County (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Oakland County away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 2.11 + Oakland County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Oakland County attack 1.40 + Ann Arbor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ann Arbor scores more

48%

level

23%

Oakland County scores more

30%

Ann Arbor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff