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Oakland County vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2026

Oakland County
Oakland County
FT
3 – 2
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
7/16/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 17Royal Oaks High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oakland County50%
×Draw22%
Ann Arbor29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakland County
2.01
Ann Arbor
1.48

Oakland County creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Oakland County
2.27
Ann Arbor
1.56

allows per match

Oakland County
1.40
Ann Arbor
1.75

finishing

Oakland County+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland County ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Oakland County or draw
71%
Oakland County or Ann Arbor
78%
Draw or Ann Arbor
50%

Winning margin

Oakland County wins by 2+
29%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oakland County 1+ goals
87%
Oakland County 2+ goals
59%
Oakland County 3+ goals
32%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
77%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
43%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Oakland County (draw refunded)
64%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland County at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland County attack 2.27 + Ann Arbor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.01

Ann Arbor attack 1.56 + Oakland County defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oakland County scores more
50%
level
22%
Ann Arbor scores more
29%

Oakland County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oakland County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakland County vs Ann Arbor

Oakland County beat Ann Arbor 3-2 in USL League Two on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Royal Oaks High School in Royal Oak, Michigan.