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Nyva Ternopil vs Kalush — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
FT
1 – 2
Kalush
Kalush
10/7/2018Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 12Stadion Mis'kyj (Ternopil')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nyva Ternopil28%
×Draw31%
Kalush41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Ternopil
0.86
Kalush
1.09

Kalush creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Kalush
1.27

allows per match

Nyva Ternopil
0.91
Kalush
0.73

finishing

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par
Kalush+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Ternopil ↓

Kalush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nyva Ternopil or draw
59%
Nyva Ternopil or Kalush
69%
Draw or Kalush
72%

Winning margin

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
9%
Kalush wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
58%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
21%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
6%
Kalush 1+ goals
66%
Kalush 2+ goals
30%
Kalush 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
41%
Kalush (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Ternopil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Kalush away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.00 + Kalush defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Kalush attack 1.27 + Nyva Ternopil defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nyva Ternopil scores more
28%
level
31%
Kalush scores more
41%

Kalush at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyva Ternopil vs Kalush

Kalush beat Nyva Ternopil 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mis'kyj (Ternopil').