Kalush 4–3 Nyva Ternopil: Result & Stats

Kalush

FT

4 – 3

Nyva Ternopil

5/15/2019

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 21Stadion Khimik (Kalush)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalush28%

×Draw24%

Nyva Ternopil48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalushExpected goals in this matchNyva Ternopil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.64

Kalush

1.19

Nyva Ternopil

1.64

Nyva Ternopil creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.82

1.45

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Kalush

1.64

Nyva Ternopil

1.82

allows per match

Kalush

1.45

Nyva Ternopil

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalush+0.00on par

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalush ↓

Nyva Ternopil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kalush or draw

52%

Kalush or Nyva Ternopil

76%

Draw or Nyva Ternopil

72%

Winning margin

Kalush wins by 2+

11%

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kalush 1+ goals

70%

Kalush 2+ goals

33%

Kalush 3+ goals

12%

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

81%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

49%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kalush (draw refunded)

37%

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalush at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalush attack 1.64 + Nyva Ternopil defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.82 + Kalush defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalush scores more

28%

level

24%

Nyva Ternopil scores more

48%

Nyva Ternopil at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff