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Kalush vs Nyva Ternopil — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kalush
Kalush
CANC
00:00
Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
4/17/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kalush23%
×Draw26%
Nyva Ternopil51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalush
0.90
Nyva Ternopil
1.50

Nyva Ternopil creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kalush
1.40
Nyva Ternopil
1.70

allows per match

Kalush
1.30
Nyva Ternopil
0.40

finishing

Kalush+0.00on par
Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalush ↓

Nyva Ternopil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kalush or draw
49%
Kalush or Nyva Ternopil
74%
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
77%

Winning margin

Kalush wins by 2+
8%
Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kalush 1+ goals
59%
Kalush 2+ goals
23%
Kalush 3+ goals
6%
Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
78%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
44%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kalush (draw refunded)
31%
Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalush at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalush attack 1.40 + Nyva Ternopil defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.70 + Kalush defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalush scores more
23%
level
26%
Nyva Ternopil scores more
51%

Nyva Ternopil at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalush vs Nyva Ternopil — Match Preview

Kalush face Nyva Ternopil on April 17, 2020 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.