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Nykobing FC vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
10/13/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 11Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC25%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.04
Aarhus Fremad
1.57

Aarhus Fremad creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 80 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Aarhus Fremad
1.65

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
50%
Nykobing FC or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
75%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
9%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
65%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
28%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
9%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
79%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
46%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
34%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.65 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
25%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
50%

Aarhus Fremad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Nykobing FC 0–2 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Nykobing FC 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.