Aarhus Fremad 2–1 Nykobing FC: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nykobing FC

11/2/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14BRAVIDA Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aarhus Fremad59%

×Draw21%

Nykobing FC20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchNykobing FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.11

Aarhus Fremad

2.08

Nykobing FC

1.11

Aarhus Fremad creates 87% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 32 away

2.01

creates per match

1.13

1.09

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.01

Nykobing FC

1.13

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Nykobing FC

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Nykobing FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

80%

Aarhus Fremad or Nykobing FC

79%

Draw or Nykobing FC

41%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

36%

Nykobing FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

87%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

61%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

34%

Nykobing FC 1+ goals

67%

Nykobing FC 2+ goals

30%

Nykobing FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

75%

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

59%

level

21%

Nykobing FC scores more

20%

Aarhus Fremad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff