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Aarhus Fremad vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
D. Haarbo 90+2'
E. Junge 70', 51'
A. Holvad 69'
S. Denius 21'
4/6/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22BRAVIDA Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aarhus Fremad60%
×Draw21%
Nykobing FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
2.08
Nykobing FC
1.10

Aarhus Fremad creates 89% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.00
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.08
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
81%
Aarhus Fremad or Nykobing FC
79%
Draw or Nykobing FC
40%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
36%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
87%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
61%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
34%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
67%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
30%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
75%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 79 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.00 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
60%
level
21%
Nykobing FC scores more
19%

Aarhus Fremad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
S. Denius
51'
E. Junge
69'
A. Holvad
70'
E. Junge
90+2'
D. Haarbo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad vs Nykobing FC

Aarhus Fremad beat Nykobing FC 5-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Denius (21'), E. Junge (51', 70'), A. Holvad (69'), D. Haarbo (90+2').

The match was played at BRAVIDA Kunstgræsbane in Tranbjerg.