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Nürnberg II vs Augsburg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Augsburg II
Augsburg II
8/5/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 3Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nürnberg II52%
×Draw22%
Augsburg II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
1.98
Augsburg II
1.35

Nürnberg II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 87 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
Augsburg II
1.47

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
Augsburg II
1.70

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Augsburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
74%
Nürnberg II or Augsburg II
78%
Draw or Augsburg II
48%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
30%
Augsburg II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
86%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
59%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
31%
Augsburg II 1+ goals
74%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
39%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
67%
Augsburg II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Augsburg II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.98

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
52%
level
22%
Augsburg II scores more
26%

Nürnberg II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Nürnberg II 1–2 Augsburg II

Augsburg II beat Nürnberg II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.