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Augsburg II vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
FT
5 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
11/10/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 20Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Augsburg II40%
×Draw23%
Nürnberg II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
1.67
Nürnberg II
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 86 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
1.89
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

Augsburg II
1.42
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
63%
Augsburg II or Nürnberg II
77%
Draw or Nürnberg II
60%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
20%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
81%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
50%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
23%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
80%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
47%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
52%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Augsburg II scores more
40%
level
23%
Nürnberg II scores more
37%

Augsburg II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Augsburg II vs Nürnberg II

Augsburg II beat Nürnberg II 5-4 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Rosenaustadion in Augsburg.