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Augsburg II vs Nürnberg II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
CANC
12:00
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Augsburg II36%
×Draw20%
Nürnberg II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
2.06
Nürnberg II
2.28

Nürnberg II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
2.40
Nürnberg II
2.45

allows per match

Augsburg II
2.10
Nürnberg II
1.73

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
56%
Augsburg II or Nürnberg II
80%
Draw or Nürnberg II
64%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
19%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
87%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
61%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
34%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
90%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
66%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
45%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 2.40 + Nürnberg II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.06

Nürnberg II attack 2.45 + Augsburg II defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Augsburg II scores more
36%
level
20%
Nürnberg II scores more
44%

Nürnberg II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Augsburg II face Nürnberg II (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Augsburg II hosting Nürnberg II. Match starts February 10, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Augsburg II host Nürnberg II at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.