Nublense 3–1 D. La Serena: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

D. La Serena

A. Aravena 81', 32', 16'

L. Valencia 67'

3/4/2022

Primera División · Round 5Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nublense45%

×Draw25%

D. La Serena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Nublense

1.54

D. La Serena

1.20

Nublense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

1.05

1.34

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Nublense

1.15

D. La Serena

1.05

allows per match

Nublense

1.34

D. La Serena

1.94

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Nublense-0.25scores less

D. La Serena-0.48scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

70%

Nublense or D. La Serena

75%

Draw or D. La Serena

55%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

23%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

79%

Nublense 2+ goals

45%

Nublense 3+ goals

20%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

70%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

34%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

60%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.15 + D. La Serena defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

D. La Serena attack 1.05 + Nublense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nublense scores more

45%

level

25%

D. La Serena scores more

30%

Nublense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Aravena

Nublense · M

8.9

Match Events

11'

16'

23'

32'

45'

Jovany CampusanoPenalty cancelled

46'

R. Paredes← M. Estigarribia

46'

47'

61'

63'

64'

64'

64'

M. Rivera← B. Provoste

67'

L. Valencia

70'

Nozomi Kimura

71'

J. Cavallaro← H. Suazo

74'

F. Cordero← F. Reynero

79'

M. Fernández← C. Jorquera

81'

A. Aravena↳ F. Cordero

88'

Jovany Campusano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NublenseD.

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots17

2Corners9

10Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots17

5On Target5

2Off Target9

3Blocked3

9Inside Box11

1Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

393Total Passes438

310Accurate Passes357

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Primera División: Nublense 3–1 D. La Serena

Nublense beat D. La Serena 3-1 in Primera División on March 4, 2022.

Goals: A. Aravena (16', 32', 81'), L. Valencia (67').

D. La Serena controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Chillán.

Nublense vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Nublense 3–1 D. La Serena