Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. La Serena vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nublense
Nublense
J. Cavallaro 90+4'
S. Dittborn 79'
F. Andrada 12'
7/30/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 20Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena42%
×Draw24%
Nublense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.59
Nublense
1.39

D. La Serena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.41
Nublense
1.30

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.48
Nublense
1.78

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less
Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Nublense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
67%
D. La Serena or Nublense
76%
Draw or Nublense
58%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
21%
Nublense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
80%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
47%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
21%
Nublense 1+ goals
75%
Nublense 2+ goals
40%
Nublense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
56%
Nublense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nublense attack 1.30 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

D. La Serena scores more
42%
level
24%
Nublense scores more
33%

D. La Serena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. AlarcónD. La SerenaD. La Serena · D
8.7

Match Events

12'
F. Andrada↳ S. Dittborn
22'
J. Buss← E. Ferrario
40'
Nicolás Guerra
45+3'
Luckas Carreño
45'
F. Cordero← J. Campusano
56'
I. Rozas← B. Provoste
65'
R. Paredes← F. Andrada
65'
J. Carreño← A. Cáceres
69'
F. Reynero← N. Guerra
72'
Bernardo Cerezo
74'
B. Soto← C. Erbes
74'
J. Cavallaro← L. Díaz
75'
Richard Paredes
79'
S. Dittborn↳ H. Suazo
90+5'
Juan Cavallaro
90+4'
J. Cavallaro↳ L. Carreño

Possession

41%D.

Shots

9D.

Pass accuracy

47%D.

Statistics

D.Nublense
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots18
2Corners10
10Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots18
4On Target2
5Off Target8
0Blocked8
8Inside Box9
1Outside Box9
Passing
41%Possession59%
326Total Passes456
194Accurate Passes314
60%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Primera División: D. La Serena 3–0 Nublense

D. La Serena beat Nublense 3-0 in Primera División on July 30, 2022.

Goals: F. Andrada (12'), S. Dittborn (79'), J. Cavallaro (90+4').

Nublense controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.