D. La Serena 1–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nublense

J. Fernandez 48'

P. Rubio 90' (pen)

10/18/2025

Primera División · Round 24Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena42%

×Draw24%

Nublense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.39

D. La Serena

1.59

Nublense

1.39

D. La Serena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

1.30

1.48

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.41

Nublense

1.30

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.48

Nublense

1.78

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less

Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

67%

D. La Serena or Nublense

76%

Draw or Nublense

58%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

21%

Nublense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

80%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

47%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

21%

Nublense 1+ goals

75%

Nublense 2+ goals

40%

Nublense 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

56%

Nublense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nublense attack 1.30 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

D. La Serena scores more

42%

level

24%

Nublense scores more

33%

D. La Serena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Plaza

D. La Serena

8.2

Match Events

27'

42'

43'

48'

61'

S. Gallegos← G. A. Jara Gonzalez

63'

D. Sanhueza← B. Cerezo

63'

B. Oyarzo Munoz← G. Graciani

63'

P. Sanchez← L. Molina

65'

Jovany Campusano

74'

Juan Fuentes

74'

J. Rojas← M. Pinto

81'

M. Villarroel← M. Rivera

81'

E. Herrera← E. Moreira

83'

87'

90+9'

90+5'

90'

P. RubioPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Nublense

Overview

27%Possession73%

7Total Shots16

1.86Expected Goals (xG)1.51

3Corners8

11Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots16

1On Target5

5Off Target11

1Blocked0

3Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

205Total Passes554

114Accurate Passes464

56%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

0Offsides6