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NŠ Drava vs Aluminij — 2. SNL 2019

NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Aluminij
Aluminij
8/17/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 2Mestni Štadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

NŠ Drava18%
×Draw21%
Aluminij61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NŠ Drava
1.04
Aluminij
2.10

Aluminij creates 102% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

NŠ Drava
1.10
Aluminij
1.97

allows per match

NŠ Drava
2.22
Aluminij
0.97

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par
Aluminij+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Aluminij →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw
39%
NŠ Drava or Aluminij
79%
Draw or Aluminij
82%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+
6%
Aluminij wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals
65%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
28%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
9%
Aluminij 1+ goals
88%
Aluminij 2+ goals
62%
Aluminij 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
23%
Aluminij (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Aluminij away — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Aluminij defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Aluminij attack 1.97 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

NŠ Drava scores more
18%
level
21%
Aluminij scores more
61%

Aluminij at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aluminij will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NŠ Drava vs Aluminij

Aluminij beat NŠ Drava 3-2 in 2. SNL on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion in Ptuj.