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Aluminij vs NŠ Drava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aluminij
Aluminij
CANC
11:00
NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
2/1/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aluminij54%
×Draw22%
NŠ Drava23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
1.90
NŠ Drava
1.17

Aluminij creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.47
NŠ Drava
0.67

allows per match

Aluminij
1.67
NŠ Drava
2.33

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

NŠ Drava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
77%
Aluminij or NŠ Drava
78%
Draw or NŠ Drava
46%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
31%
NŠ Drava wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
85%
Aluminij 2+ goals
56%
Aluminij 3+ goals
29%
NŠ Drava 1+ goals
69%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
33%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
70%
NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

NŠ Drava away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.47 + NŠ Drava defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

NŠ Drava attack 0.67 + Aluminij defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aluminij scores more
54%
level
22%
NŠ Drava scores more
23%

Aluminij at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aluminij will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aluminij face NŠ Drava (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Aluminij hosting NŠ Drava. Match starts February 1, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aluminij host NŠ Drava at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.