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Aluminij vs NŠ Drava — 2. SNL 2019

Aluminij
Aluminij
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
2/28/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 17Športni Park Aluminij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Aluminij65%
×Draw20%
NŠ Drava15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
2.12
NŠ Drava
0.92

Aluminij creates 130% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 52 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.93
NŠ Drava
1.10

allows per match

Aluminij
0.73
NŠ Drava
2.31

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

NŠ Drava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
85%
Aluminij or NŠ Drava
80%
Draw or NŠ Drava
35%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
41%
NŠ Drava wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
88%
Aluminij 2+ goals
62%
Aluminij 3+ goals
35%
NŠ Drava 1+ goals
60%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
23%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
81%
NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

NŠ Drava away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.93 + NŠ Drava defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.12

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Aluminij defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Aluminij scores more
65%
level
20%
NŠ Drava scores more
15%

Aluminij at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Aluminij will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminij vs NŠ Drava

Aluminij beat NŠ Drava 1-0 in 2. SNL on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park Aluminij in Kidričevo.