Notts County 3–2 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Milton Keynes Dons

T. Iorpenda 88'

A. Jatta 26'

M. Dennis 8'

N. Mendez-Laing 13' (pen), 3'

12/9/2025

League Two · Round 19Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Notts County44%

×Draw24%

Milton Keynes Dons32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.40

Notts County

1.69

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

Notts County creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 47 away

1.96

creates per match

1.72

1.07

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Notts County

1.96

Milton Keynes Dons

1.72

allows per match

Notts County

1.07

Milton Keynes Dons

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

68%

Notts County or Milton Keynes Dons

76%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

56%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

23%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

82%

Notts County 2+ goals

50%

Notts County 3+ goals

24%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

58%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.96 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.72 + Notts County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Notts County scores more

44%

level

24%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

32%

Notts County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Dennis

Notts County · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

N. Mendez-Laing↳ C. Paterson

8'

M. Dennis↳ J. Bedeau

13'

N. Mendez-LaingPenalty

26'

36'

45+4'

46'

59'

66'

A. Collins← N. Mendez-Laing

67'

J. Tomlinson← L. Maguire

73'

Q. Kouhyar← N. Tsaroulla

73'

J. Jones← C. Grant

76'

W. Collar← C. Paterson

84'

K. Gordon← A. Jatta

88'

T. Iorpenda

90+8'

Matthew Dennis

90+5'

Kane Thompson-Sommers

90'

L. Ness← L. Macari

90+3'

D. Crowley← L. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsMilton

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots15

2Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots15

7On Target6

2Off Target7

0Blocked2

7Inside Box14

2Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

311Total Passes418

205Accurate Passes301

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2