Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County — League Two 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Milton Keynes Dons41%
Notts County33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Milton Keynes Dons creates 14% more chances
Season form · 61 home / 49 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Milton Keynes Dons ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches
Notts County away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Notts County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40
Notts County attack 1.43 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Milton Keynes Dons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Milton Keynes Dons substitutes
Notts County
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BarrowIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Milton Keynes Dons host Notts County on Thursday, 26 December 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the League Two 2024/2025 season.
League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Notts County
Notts County beat Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 in League Two on December 26, 2024.
Goals: G. Abbott (57'), D. Crowley (71').
Notts County controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 13.
The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.