Notts County 3–3 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

A. Nemane 90+1'

A. Jatta 48'

S. Austin 45+4'

E. Harrison 83', 64'

M. Dean 19'

4/1/2024

League Two · Round 42Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Notts County46%

×Draw24%

Milton Keynes Dons29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Notts County

1.64

Milton Keynes Dons

1.25

Notts County creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 59 away

1.67

creates per match

1.53

0.98

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Notts County

1.67

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Notts County

0.98

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

71%

Notts County or Milton Keynes Dons

76%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

54%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

24%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

81%

Notts County 2+ goals

49%

Notts County 3+ goals

23%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

71%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

61%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.67 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Notts County defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Notts County scores more

46%

level

24%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

29%

Notts County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Harrison

Milton Keynes Dons · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

M. Dean↳ J. Payne

39'

Cameron Norman

39'

Lewis Bate

45+4'

S. Austin

48'

A. Jatta↳ A. Chicksen

55'

J. Bostock← S. Austin

58'

61'

61'

62'

64'

E. Harrison↳ S. Wearne

72'

J. Warner← L. Macari

80'

J. Jones← A. Chicksen

80'

D. McGoldrick← A. Jatta

83'

E. Harrison↳ E. Tezgel

88'

M. Williams← J. Payne

90+6'

Scott Robertson

90+7'

Daniel Harvie

90+1'

A. Nemane↳ J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsMilton

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots16

6Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots16

4On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked7

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

511Total Passes420

448Accurate Passes333

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3