Nottingham Forest 2–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

C. Wood 56'

M. Gibbs-White 25'

F. Buonanotte 81'

C. Coady 16'

5/11/2025

Premier League · Round 36The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nottingham Forest43%

×Draw23%

Leicester33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.49

Nottingham Forest

1.73

Leicester

1.49

Nottingham Forest creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 9 away

1.34

creates per match

1.65

1.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.34

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Leicester

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

67%

Nottingham Forest or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

57%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

23%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

82%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

52%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

25%

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

44%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

57%

Leicester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Leicester attack 1.65 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

43%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

33%

Nottingham Forest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

C. Coady

25'

M. Gibbs-White↳ A. Elanga

39'

James Justin

56'

C. Wood↳ M. Gibbs-White

58'

Luke Thomas

60'

Morato

60'

B. Soumaré← O. Skipp

61'

F. Buonanotte← J. Ayew

69'

Ola Aina

73'

Elliot Anderson

74'

R. Yates← N. Domínguez

77'

V. Kristiansen← L. Thomas

77'

J. Monga← K. McAteer

79'

Facundo Buonanotte

81'

F. Buonanotte↳ J. Vardy

83'

T. Awoniyi← I. Sangaré

90+1'

Jota Silva← E. Anderson

90+3'

C. Okoli← B. El Khannouss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamLeicester

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots10

1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.05

4Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target6

6Off Target4

5Blocked0

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

433Total Passes347

368Accurate Passes276

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2