Nottingham Forest 2–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

B. Johnson 85', 56'

1/14/2023

Premier League · Round 20The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest44%

×Draw22%

Leicester33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.58

Nottingham Forest

1.85

Leicester

1.58

Nottingham Forest creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.92

1.24

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.40

Leicester

1.92

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.24

Leicester

2.30

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.05on par

Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

67%

Nottingham Forest or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

56%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

24%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

84%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

55%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

28%

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

47%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

57%

Leicester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.24 · 40 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.40 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Leicester attack 1.92 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

44%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

33%

Nottingham Forest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest · F

8.7

Match Events

29'

Youri Tielemans

46'

J. Colback← R. Yates

55'

S. Surridge← Gustavo Scarpa

56'

B. Johnson↳ M. Gibbs-White

57'

Brennan JohnsonGoal confirmed

68'

K. Ịheanachọ← M. Albrighton

68'

L. Brunt← L. Thomas

68'

D. Praet← N. Mendy

70'

L. O'Brien← O. Mangala

77'

Daniel Amartey

85'

Brennan Johnson

85'

B. Johnson↳ M. Gibbs-White

86'

N. Williams← B. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamLeicester

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots6

3Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target1

4Off Target3

6Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

345Total Passes547

260Accurate Passes452

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1